An Airbnb revenue forecast is a month-by-month projection of occupancy, ADR and revenue for one property, shown next to the same figures for comparable listings. It is used to test a purchase, an arbitrage lease or a new listing before money is committed, and to set revenue targets for a live listing.
Demand drivers in Lake Arrowhead: Lake Arrowhead summer boating; Winter snow play and SkyPark at Santa's Village; Lake Gregory in Crestline; The Lake Arrowhead Oktoberfest. Typical guests: Los Angeles and Orange County families on 2 to 3 night weekend stays near the lake and Blue Jay, chasing snow in winter and the water in summer. Where the work starts: Summer-lake and winter-snow twin peaks for a close Los Angeles drive market, holiday and powder-day premiums, and weekend minimums with midweek shoulder discounts.
Arrowhead STR pricing is mostly a weekend game with two peaks. We hold two-night weekend minimums all year and three-night minimums for holiday weekends, then raise rates when a storm is forecast or a heatwave sends families uphill. Midweek gets a separate rate with shorter minimums and orphan-gap discounts. Lake rights, hot tubs, snow-safe driveways and fireplaces deserve their own premiums.
The full service is described on our airbnb revenue forecast page; this page covers how it applies in Lake Arrowhead.