An Airbnb revenue forecast is a month-by-month projection of occupancy, ADR and revenue for one property, shown next to the same figures for comparable listings. It is used to test a purchase, an arbitrage lease or a new listing before money is committed, and to set revenue targets for a live listing.
Demand drivers in Sydney: New Year's Eve harbour fireworks; Vivid Sydney; Mardi Gras and Sydney Festival; Beach season in Bondi, Manly and Coogee. Typical guests: Domestic and international leisure travellers on 3 to 7 night stays, plus corporate guests in the CBD. Where the work starts: New Year's Eve premiums with minimum stays, summer beach pricing, and compliance with the 180-night non-hosted cap.
The 180-night cap changes the maths for non-hosted properties. We choose which nights to sell for short stays, New Year's Eve, Mardi Gras, Vivid, summer weekends and school holidays, and price them hard with minimums. The remaining nights go to stays of longer than three months for corporate relocations, students or medical stays, which sit outside the short-term rental definition. Hosted listings face no cap but need strong reviews.
The full service is described on our airbnb revenue forecast page; this page covers how it applies in Sydney.